Greg Hands' majority looks vulnerable in Remain inclined constituency
The latest prediction on the outcome of a contest for the Chelsea and Fulham constituency is pointing to the possibility of a shock victory for the Liberal Democrats.
The projection is made by Flavible based on national polling by YouGov which is then extrapolated using local demographic information.
It suggests that the Lib Dems are on course to get 35% of the votes with the Conservatives trailing close behind on 34% Both the Greens and the Brexit Party could significantly increase their share with Labour falling back markedly. Flavible do warn that these projections should not be conflated with other constituency polling.
Last time out Greg Hands won with a comfortable majority of over 8,000 obtaining over half the votes cast.
Although he voted for to stay in the referendum and led the Remain campaign in the constituency he says he is now determined to respect the result of the vote and that the UK should seek a deal to leave. He has been the co-Chairman of the independent Alternative Arrangements Commission working on proposals for a replacement to the Northern Ireland Backstop outlined in the Withdrawal Agreement. He favours leaving the EU at the end of the month but says the best way to avoid no deal is to get a deal.
He resigned as an International Trade Minister due to his opposition to Government plans to proceed with a third runway at Heathrow.
With the pro-Brexit vote in the constituency just 29.1% he faces a backlash from Remain inclined voters in an area which has traditionally been a Conservative stronghold.
The Remain Alliance in Hammersmith and Fulham, which promotes cross party co-operation to stop Brexit, Tweeted that the poll showed that the 15% projected to support Labour would be wasting their vote and they should back the Lib Dem candidate.
We have asked Mr Hands for comment.